Core tenet 2: How we interpret If you experience something that you think could only be caused by cause A, ask yourself "if this cause didn't exist, would I regardless expect to experience this with equal probability?
" If the answer is "yes", then it probably wasn't cause A.
(For a thorough mathematical treatment of Bayes' theorem, see Eliezer's Intuitive Explanation.)There should be nothing surprising about that, of course.
Suppose you're outside, and you see a person running.
This article is an attempt to summarize basic material, and thus probably won't have anything new for the hard core posting crowd.